Lithuania–Romania

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 15 October 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: S. Dariaus ir S. Gireno stadionas, Kaunas

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Nick Walsh, Scotland→

4.06

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.3%: “Romania to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.5%.
The highest double chance value is 86.8% (X2 — draw or Romania win).
These values were computed from 4,520 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lithuania to win13.2%

Draw24.5%

Romania to win62.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,274 of 2,042 predictions were correct (62.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Lithuania win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Lithuania

Attack: Lithuania score below the league average (46% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Romania concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Romania

Attack: Romania score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lithuania concede 42% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.