Northern Ireland–Bulgaria

5–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 15 October 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Windsor Park, Belfast

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Jérôme Brisard, France→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.5%: “Northern Ireland to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.1%.
The highest double chance value is 75.6% (1X — Northern Ireland win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,520 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Northern Ireland to win44.5%

Draw31.1%

Bulgaria to win24.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,399 of 5,395 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Northern Ireland win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Northern Ireland

Attack: Northern Ireland score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bulgaria's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Bulgaria

Attack: Bulgaria score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Northern Ireland's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.