Poland–Croatia

3–3

HT 2–3

Kick-off: Tuesday, 15 October 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Narodowy, Warszawa

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 4.7% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Alejandro Hernandez, Spain→

5.33

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.9%: “Croatia to win”. Second comes “Poland to win” at 33.2%.
The highest double chance value is 71.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 4,520 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Poland to win33.2%

Draw28.9%

Croatia to win37.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Poland win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Poland

Attack: Poland score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Croatia concede 44% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Croatia

Attack: Croatia score above the league average (49% more).

Opponent's defence: Poland concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.