Spain–Serbia

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 15 October 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Nuevo Arcángel, Córdoba

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Daniel Stefanski, Poland→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.8%: “Spain to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.5%.
The highest double chance value is 92.3% (1X — Spain win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,520 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Spain to win74.8%

Draw17.5%

Serbia to win7.7%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 941 of 1,254 predictions were correct (75.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Spain win or draw92.3%

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Spain

Attack: Spain score 115% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Serbia concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Serbia

Attack: Serbia score above the league average (49% more).

Opponent's defence: Spain concede 57% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.