Bosnia & Herzegovina–Hungary

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 14 October 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Bilino Polje, Zenica

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Anthony Taylor, England→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.0%: “Hungary to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.4%.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (X2 — draw or Hungary win).
These values were computed from 4,502 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bosnia & Herzegovina to win26.7%

Draw29.4%

Hungary to win44.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,399 of 5,395 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Bosnia & Herzegovina win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Attack: Bosnia & Herzegovina score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hungary concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Hungary

Attack: Hungary score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bosnia & Herzegovina's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.