Estonia–Sweden

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Monday, 14 October 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Juxhin Xhaja, Albania→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.6%: “Sweden to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.4%.
The highest double chance value is 88.0% (X2 — draw or Sweden win).
These values were computed from 4,502 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Estonia to win12.0%

Draw21.4%

Sweden to win66.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,059 of 1,563 predictions were correct (67.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Estonia win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Estonia

Attack: Estonia score below the league average (37% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sweden concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Sweden

Attack: Sweden score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: Estonia concede 30% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.