Ukraine–Czechia

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 14 October 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tarczyński Arena, Wrocław

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain→

5.21

yellows per match

0.42

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.6%: “Ukraine to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.1%.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (1X — Ukraine win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,502 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ukraine to win46.6%

Draw27.1%

Czechia to win26.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ukraine win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Ukraine

Attack: Ukraine score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Czechia concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Czechia

Attack: Czechia score above the league average (46% more).

Opponent's defence: Ukraine concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.