Wales–Montenegro

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 14 October 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Filip Glova, Slovakia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.6%: “Wales to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.7%.
The highest double chance value is 84.3% (1X — Wales win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,502 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Wales to win58.6%

Draw25.7%

Montenegro to win15.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,696 of 2,854 predictions were correct (59.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Wales win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Wales

Attack: Wales score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Montenegro's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Montenegro

Attack: Montenegro score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Wales concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.