Iceland–Türkiye

2–4

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 14 October 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Laugardalsvöllur, Reykjavík

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 3.5% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Damian Sylwestrzak, Poland→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.1%: “Türkiye to win”. Second comes “Iceland to win” at 34.6%.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 4,502 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Iceland to win34.6%

Draw27.4%

Türkiye to win38.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Iceland win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Iceland

Attack: Iceland score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Türkiye concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Türkiye

Attack: Türkiye score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Iceland's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.