Belgium–France

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Monday, 14 October 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Irfan Peljto, Bosnia & Herzegovina→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.4%: “Belgium to win”. Second comes “France to win” at 30.8%.
The highest double chance value is 71.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 4,502 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Belgium to win40.4%

Draw28.8%

France to win30.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,399 of 5,395 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Belgium win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Belgium

Attack: Belgium score 79% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: France concede 53% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

France

Attack: France score 94% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Belgium concede 47% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.