Georgia–Albania

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 14 October 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni, Tbilisi

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 19%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Danny Makkelie, Netherlands→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.4%: “Georgia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
The highest double chance value is 81.0% (1X — Georgia win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,500 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Georgia to win54.4%

Draw26.6%

Albania to win19.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,836 of 3,546 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Georgia win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Georgia

Attack: Georgia score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Albania concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Albania

Attack: Albania score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Georgia's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.