Faroe Islands–Latvia

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 October 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tórsvøllur, Tórshavn, Streymoy

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Philip Farrugia, Malta→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.3%: “Faroe Islands to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.1%.
The highest double chance value is 75.3% (1X — Faroe Islands win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,496 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Faroe Islands to win46.3%

Draw29.1%

Latvia to win24.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Faroe Islands win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Faroe Islands

Attack: Faroe Islands score below the league average (41% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Latvia concede 43% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Latvia

Attack: Latvia score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Faroe Islands concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.