Austria–Norway

5–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 October 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Tamas Bognar, Hungary→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.9%: “Austria to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.8%.
The highest double chance value is 78.7% (1X — Austria win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,496 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Austria to win52.9%

Draw25.8%

Norway to win21.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,836 of 3,546 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Austria win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Austria

Attack: Austria score 53% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Norway concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Norway

Attack: Norway score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: Austria concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.