Malta–Moldova

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 October 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ta'Qali National Stadium, Ta'Qali

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 3% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

John Brooks, England→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.9%: “Malta to win”. Second comes “Moldova to win” at 33.9%.
The highest double chance value is 70.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 4,491 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Malta to win36.9%

Draw29.3%

Moldova to win33.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Malta win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Malta

Attack: Malta score below the league average (43% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Moldova concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Moldova

Attack: Moldova score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Malta concede 52% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.