Liechtenstein–Gibraltar

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 October 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Rheinpark Stadion, Vaduz

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Horatiu Fesnic, Romania→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.8%: “Liechtenstein to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 32.7%.
The highest double chance value is 72.5% (1X — Liechtenstein win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,491 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Liechtenstein to win39.8%

Draw32.7%

Gibraltar to win27.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Liechtenstein win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Liechtenstein

Attack: Liechtenstein score below the league average (73% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Gibraltar concede 124% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Gibraltar

Attack: Gibraltar score below the league average (68% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Liechtenstein concede 102% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.