Finland–England

1–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 October 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Giorgi Kruashvili, Georgia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.4%: “England to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.9%.
The highest double chance value is 88.2% (X2 — draw or England win).
These values were computed from 4,491 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Finland to win11.8%

Draw21.9%

England to win66.4%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,059 of 1,563 predictions were correct (67.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Finland win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Finland

Attack: Finland score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: England concede 53% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

England

Attack: England score 79% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Finland's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.