Kazakhstan–Slovenia

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 October 2024 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Craig Pawson, England→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.3%: “Slovenia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
The highest double chance value is 80.9% (X2 — draw or Slovenia win).
These values were computed from 4,490 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kazakhstan to win19.1%

Draw26.6%

Slovenia to win54.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,836 of 3,546 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Kazakhstan win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Kazakhstan

Attack: Kazakhstan score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Slovenia concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Slovenia

Attack: Slovenia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kazakhstan concede 32% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.