Hungary–Netherlands

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 11 October 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Puskás Aréna, Budapest

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Lukas Fahndrich, Switzerland→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.4%: “Netherlands to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.0%.
The highest double chance value is 74.4% (X2 — draw or Netherlands win).
These values were computed from 4,470 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hungary to win25.6%

Draw27.0%

Netherlands to win47.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hungary win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Hungary

Attack: Hungary score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Netherlands concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Netherlands

Attack: Netherlands score 100% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Hungary concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.