Estonia–Azerbaijan

3–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Friday, 11 October 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 1.5% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Robert Harvey, Ireland→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.8%: “Azerbaijan to win”. Second comes “Estonia to win” at 34.2%.
The highest double chance value is 70.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 4,469 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Estonia to win34.2%

Draw30.0%

Azerbaijan to win35.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Estonia win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Estonia

Attack: Estonia score below the league average (42% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Azerbaijan concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Azerbaijan

Attack: Azerbaijan score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Estonia concede 30% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.