Montenegro–Wales

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Monday, 9 September 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Gradski, Nikšić

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 2.9% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Georgi Kabakov, Bulgaria→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.1%: “Wales to win”. Second comes “Montenegro to win” at 33.2%.
The highest double chance value is 69.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 4,406 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Montenegro to win33.2%

Draw30.7%

Wales to win36.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Montenegro win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Montenegro

Attack: Montenegro score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Wales concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Wales

Attack: Wales score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Montenegro's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.