UEFA Nations League · Relegation Play-out

Lithuania–Gibraltar

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 26 March 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Duje Strukan, Croatia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 76.4%: “Lithuania to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.6%.
The highest double chance value is 94.0% (1X — Lithuania win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,042 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lithuania to win76.4%

Draw17.6%

Gibraltar to win6.0%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 753 of 933 predictions were correct (80.7%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Lithuania win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Lithuania

Attack: Lithuania score below the league average (43% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Gibraltar concede 130% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Gibraltar

Attack: Gibraltar score below the league average (70% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lithuania concede 32% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.