UEFA Nations League · Relegation Play-out

Gibraltar–Lithuania

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 21 March 2024 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Victoria Stadium, Gibraltar

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Giorgi Kruashvili, Georgia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.9%: “Lithuania to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.0%.
The highest double chance value is 82.9% (X2 — draw or Lithuania win).
These values were computed from 3,950 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gibraltar to win17.1%

Draw27.0%

Lithuania to win55.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,696 of 2,854 predictions were correct (59.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Gibraltar win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Gibraltar

Attack: Gibraltar score below the league average (68% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lithuania concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Lithuania

Attack: Lithuania score below the league average (43% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Gibraltar concede 132% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.