Greece–Northern Ireland

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 27 September 2022 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Filip Glova, Slovakia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.8%: “Greece to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.8%.
The highest double chance value is 81.6% (1X — Greece win or draw).
These values were computed from 3,025 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Greece to win51.8%

Draw29.8%

Northern Ireland to win18.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,836 of 3,546 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Greece win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Greece

Attack: Greece score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Northern Ireland's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Northern Ireland

Attack: Northern Ireland score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Greece concede 40% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.