Kosovo–Cyprus

5–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 27 September 2022 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Kristo Tohver, Estonia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.2%: “Kosovo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.0%.
The highest double chance value is 91.3% (1X — Kosovo win or draw).
These values were computed from 3,025 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kosovo to win72.2%

Draw19.0%

Cyprus to win8.7%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 941 of 1,254 predictions were correct (75.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Kosovo win or draw91.3%

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Kosovo

Attack: Kosovo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cyprus concede 32% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Cyprus

Attack: Cyprus score below the league average (44% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kosovo's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.