Sweden–Slovenia

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 27 September 2022 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Friends Arena, Solna

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Felix Zwayer, Germany→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.6%: “Sweden to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.4%.
The highest double chance value is 82.0% (1X — Sweden win or draw).
These values were computed from 3,025 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sweden to win55.6%

Draw26.4%

Slovenia to win18.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,696 of 2,854 predictions were correct (59.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sweden win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Sweden

Attack: Sweden score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Slovenia concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Slovenia

Attack: Slovenia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sweden concede 30% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.