San Marino–Estonia

0–4

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 26 September 2022 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle, Serravalle

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Kateryna Monzul, Ukraine→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.3%: “Estonia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.3%.
The highest double chance value is 93.6% (X2 — draw or Estonia win).
These values were computed from 2,996 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

San Marino to win6.4%

Draw19.3%

Estonia to win74.3%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 941 of 1,254 predictions were correct (75.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — San Marino win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

San Marino

Attack: San Marino score below the league average (82% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Estonia concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Estonia

Attack: Estonia score below the league average (37% fewer).

Opponent's defence: San Marino concede 166% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.