North Macedonia–Bulgaria

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 26 September 2022 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Toše Proeski Arena, Skopje

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 18%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Julian Weinberger, Austria→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.5%: “North Macedonia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.8%.
The highest double chance value is 82.3% (1X — North Macedonia win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,996 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

North Macedonia to win57.5%

Draw24.8%

Bulgaria to win17.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,696 of 2,854 predictions were correct (59.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — North Macedonia win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

North Macedonia

Attack: North Macedonia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bulgaria's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Bulgaria

Attack: Bulgaria score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: North Macedonia's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.