Gibraltar–Georgia

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 26 September 2022 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Victoria Stadium, Gibraltar

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Robert Harvey, Ireland→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 82.7%: “Georgia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.6%.
The highest double chance value is 96.2% (X2 — draw or Georgia win).
These values were computed from 2,996 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gibraltar to win3.8%

Draw13.6%

Georgia to win82.7%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 491 of 585 predictions were correct (83.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Gibraltar win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Gibraltar

Attack: Gibraltar score below the league average (65% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Georgia concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Georgia

Attack: Georgia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gibraltar concede 135% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.