Luxembourg–Lithuania

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 September 2022 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Giorgi Kruashvili, Georgia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.7%: “Luxembourg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.4%.
The highest double chance value is 90.1% (1X — Luxembourg win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,988 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Luxembourg to win69.7%

Draw20.4%

Lithuania to win9.9%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,059 of 1,563 predictions were correct (67.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Luxembourg win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Luxembourg

Attack: Luxembourg score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lithuania concede 59% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Lithuania

Attack: Lithuania score below the league average (50% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Luxembourg concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.