Faroe Islands–Türkiye

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 September 2022 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tórsvøllur, Tórshavn, Streymoy

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 12%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Serhiy Boiko, Ukraine→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.6%: “Türkiye to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.5%.
The highest double chance value is 88.1% (X2 — draw or Türkiye win).
These values were computed from 2,988 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Faroe Islands to win11.9%

Draw20.5%

Türkiye to win67.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,059 of 1,563 predictions were correct (67.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Faroe Islands win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Faroe Islands

Attack: Faroe Islands score below the league average (41% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Türkiye's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Türkiye

Attack: Türkiye score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: Faroe Islands concede 43% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.