Wales–Poland

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 September 2022 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Andris Treimanis, Latvia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.6%: “Wales to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.9%.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (1X — Wales win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,988 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Wales to win45.6%

Draw27.9%

Poland to win26.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Wales win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Wales

Attack: Wales score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Poland concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Poland

Attack: Poland score above the league average (45% more).

Opponent's defence: Wales concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.