Azerbaijan–Kazakhstan

3–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 September 2022 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Harm Osmers, Germany→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.1%: “Azerbaijan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.7%.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (1X — Azerbaijan win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,986 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Azerbaijan to win42.1%

Draw29.7%

Kazakhstan to win28.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,399 of 5,395 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Azerbaijan win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Azerbaijan

Attack: Azerbaijan score below the league average (41% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kazakhstan concede 33% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Kazakhstan

Attack: Kazakhstan score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Azerbaijan's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.