Moldova–Liechtenstein

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 September 2022 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadionul Zimbru, Chişinău

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Stephanie Frappart, France→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.5%: “Moldova to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.6%.
The highest double chance value is 93.1% (1X — Moldova win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,984 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Moldova to win74.5%

Draw18.6%

Liechtenstein to win6.9%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 941 of 1,254 predictions were correct (75.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Moldova win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Moldova

Attack: Moldova score below the league average (46% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Liechtenstein concede 138% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Liechtenstein

Attack: Liechtenstein score below the league average (73% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Moldova concede 59% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.