Cyprus–Greece

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 September 2022 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 14%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Aleksey Kulbakov, Belarus→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.7%: “Greece to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.1%.
The highest double chance value is 85.8% (X2 — draw or Greece win).
These values were computed from 2,973 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cyprus to win14.2%

Draw27.1%

Greece to win58.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,696 of 2,854 predictions were correct (59.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Cyprus win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Cyprus

Attack: Cyprus score below the league average (46% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Greece concede 41% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Greece

Attack: Greece score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cyprus concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.