Serbia–Sweden

4–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 September 2022 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Rajko Mitić Stadion, Belgrade

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Georgi Kabakov, Bulgaria→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.2%: “Serbia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.3%.
The highest double chance value is 75.5% (1X — Serbia win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,973 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Serbia to win48.2%

Draw27.3%

Sweden to win24.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Serbia win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Serbia

Attack: Serbia score 51% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Sweden concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Sweden

Attack: Sweden score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Serbia concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.