Slovenia–Norway

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 September 2022 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Stožice, Ljubljana

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Lawrence Visser, Belgium→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.8%: “Norway to win”. Second comes “Slovenia to win” at 32.0%.
The highest double chance value is 69.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,968 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slovenia to win32.0%

Draw30.2%

Norway to win37.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Slovenia win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Slovenia

Attack: Slovenia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Norway concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Norway

Attack: Norway score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Slovenia concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.