Finland–Romania

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 23 September 2022 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.5%: “Finland to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.2%.
The highest double chance value is 75.6% (1X — Finland win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,952 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Finland to win45.5%

Draw30.2%

Romania to win24.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Finland win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Finland

Attack: Finland score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Romania's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Romania

Attack: Romania score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Finland concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.