Georgia–North Macedonia

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 23 September 2022 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena, Tbilisi

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Ivan Kružliak, Slovakia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.3%: “Georgia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.8%.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (1X — Georgia win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,941 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Georgia to win45.3%

Draw28.8%

North Macedonia to win25.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Georgia win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Georgia

Attack: Georgia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: North Macedonia's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

North Macedonia

Attack: North Macedonia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Georgia concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.