Estonia–Malta

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 23 September 2022 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Daniel Siebert, Germany→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.3%: “Estonia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.3%.
The highest double chance value is 82.6% (1X — Estonia win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,941 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Estonia to win57.3%

Draw25.3%

Malta to win17.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,696 of 2,854 predictions were correct (59.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Estonia win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Estonia

Attack: Estonia score below the league average (39% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Malta concede 76% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Malta

Attack: Malta score below the league average (41% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Estonia concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.