Slovakia–Azerbaijan

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 22 September 2022 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: CITY ARENA – Štadión Antona Malatinského, Trnava

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 10%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

William Collum, Scotland→

5.00

yellows per match

0.75

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.2%: “Slovakia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.0%.
The highest double chance value is 90.2% (1X — Slovakia win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,928 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slovakia to win68.2%

Draw22.0%

Azerbaijan to win9.8%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,059 of 1,563 predictions were correct (67.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Slovakia win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Slovakia

Attack: Slovakia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Azerbaijan concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Azerbaijan

Attack: Azerbaijan score below the league average (46% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Slovakia concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.