Poland–Netherlands

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 22 September 2022 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Narodowy, Warszawa

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Alejandro Hernandez, Spain→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.0%: “Netherlands to win”. Second comes “Poland to win” at 32.1%.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,928 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Poland to win32.1%

Draw25.9%

Netherlands to win42.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,399 of 5,395 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Poland win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Poland

Attack: Poland score above the league average (49% more).

Opponent's defence: Netherlands concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Netherlands

Attack: Netherlands score 95% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Poland concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.