Latvia–Moldova

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Thursday, 22 September 2022 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 12%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Antonio Nobre, Portugal→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.6%: “Latvia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.9%.
The highest double chance value is 87.6% (1X — Latvia win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,925 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Latvia to win64.6%

Draw22.9%

Moldova to win12.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,274 of 2,042 predictions were correct (62.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Latvia win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Latvia

Attack: Latvia score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Moldova concede 61% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Moldova

Attack: Moldova score below the league average (49% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Latvia concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.