Türkiye–Lithuania

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 14 June 2022 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı, İzmir

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Stephanie Frappart, France→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 94.2%: “Türkiye to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 5.0%.
The highest double chance value is 99.3% (1X — Türkiye win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,896 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Türkiye to win94.2%

Draw5.0%

Lithuania to win0.7%

When the model has said 90–95% in the past, 109 of 116 predictions were correct (94.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Türkiye win or draw99.3%

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Türkiye

Attack: Türkiye score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: Lithuania concede 66% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Lithuania

Attack: Lithuania score below the league average (48% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Türkiye's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.