Iceland–Israel

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Monday, 13 June 2022 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Laugardalsvöllur, Reykjavík

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 3.4% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Duje Strukan, Croatia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.6%: “Israel to win”. Second comes “Iceland to win” at 35.2%.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,889 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Iceland to win35.2%

Draw26.3%

Israel to win38.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Iceland win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Iceland

Attack: Iceland score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Israel concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Israel

Attack: Israel score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Iceland's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.