France–Croatia

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 13 June 2022 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 12%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Orel Grinfeeld, Israel→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.7%: “France to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.7%.
The highest double chance value is 88.4% (1X — France win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,889 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

France to win67.7%

Draw20.7%

Croatia to win11.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,059 of 1,563 predictions were correct (67.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — France win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

France

Attack: France score 84% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Croatia concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Croatia

Attack: Croatia score above the league average (41% more).

Opponent's defence: France concede 48% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.