Netherlands–Poland

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 June 2022 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Feijenoord, Rotterdam

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 18%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Halil Umut Meler, Turkey→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.4%: “Netherlands to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.6%.
The highest double chance value is 90.0% (1X — Netherlands win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,866 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Netherlands to win72.4%

Draw17.6%

Poland to win10.0%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 941 of 1,254 predictions were correct (75.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Netherlands win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Netherlands

Attack: Netherlands score 93% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Poland's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Poland

Attack: Poland score 51% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Netherlands concede 38% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.