Italy–Belgium

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 October 2021 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Torino

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Srdan Jovanovic, Serbia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.8%: “Italy to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.9%.
The highest double chance value is 76.7% (1X — Italy win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,310 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Italy to win48.8%

Draw27.9%

Belgium to win23.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Italy win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Italy

Attack: Italy score 55% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Belgium concede 44% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Belgium

Attack: Belgium score 117% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Italy concede 65% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.