Greece–Slovenia

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 18 November 2020 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.8%: “Greece to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 32.2%.
The highest double chance value is 70.0% (1X — Greece win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,640 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Greece to win37.8%

Draw32.2%

Slovenia to win30.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Greece win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Greece

Attack: Greece score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Slovenia concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Slovenia

Attack: Slovenia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Greece concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.