Serbia–Russia

5–0

HT 4–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 18 November 2020 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Rajko Mitić Stadion, Belgrade

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Daniel Stefanski, Poland→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.4%: “Russia to win”. Second comes “Serbia to win” at 31.6%.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,640 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Serbia to win31.6%

Draw26.1%

Russia to win42.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,399 of 5,395 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Serbia win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Serbia

Attack: Serbia score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Russia concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Russia

Attack: Russia score 54% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Serbia's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.