Czechia–Israel

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 November 2020 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Doosan Aréna, Plzeň

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Srdan Jovanovic, Serbia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.7%: “Czechia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.9%.
The highest double chance value is 81.6% (1X — Czechia win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,613 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Czechia to win57.7%

Draw23.9%

Israel to win18.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,696 of 2,854 predictions were correct (59.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Czechia win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Czechia

Attack: Czechia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Israel's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Israel

Attack: Israel score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Czechia's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.